Monte Carlo · Vasicek SOFR · 500 paths

Stress-test the deal over 500 futures.

This tool runs 500 what-if interest-rate scenarios to show the range of possible outcomes. Your DSCR (debt-service coverage ratio — whether the property's rent covers the loan payment; 1.00 = break-even, higher is safer) is computed at each simulated ARM (adjustable-rate mortgage) reset.

The headline number is the probability your deal breaks — that DSCR falls below 1.0 in some future rate scenario. Below 5% is comfortable; above 20% needs attention.

Live — median DSCR across 500 paths

1.05x

P10 (worst 10%)0.91x

P90 (best 10%)1.15x

Live Monte Carlo engine

500 paths · 10yr horizon

High risk — 32.8% chance the property can't cover its own costs in some rate scenarios. Consider raising rent, reducing the loan, or choosing a fixed-rate program.

Simulation parameters

Drag the sliders — results update live.

Loan Amount$340,000

Total borrowed — not the purchase price.

Monthly Rent$3,000

Gross rent the property generates.

Taxes + Insurance + HOA /mo$750

Non-debt PITIA costs. Together with the P&I payment, this makes up the full monthly obligation.

Rate assumptions

SOFR / Treasury market snapshot & Vasicek calibration. Last verified June 17, 2026 — past its 30-day review cycle; treat as provisional.

Initial SOFR %3.59%

Today's short-term rate index. ARM resets float off this after the fixed period ends.

Long-run SOFR (θ) %3.50%

Where you think rates settle over time. All paths drift toward this level.

Try a rate environment

each re-rolls all 500 paths

Current SOFR, settling near the model's long-run mean

P(DSCR < 1.0)

32.8%

chance the property can't cover its costs in some rate futures — below 5% is comfortable, above 20% is high-risk.

P(DSCR < 1.25)

100.0%

chance of missing the 1.25 cushion most lenders prefer — below 30% is acceptable.

Where rates could go — 500 simulated SOFR paths

meanP10–P90

The cone widens as uncertainty grows. When it sits well above θ (your long-run rate), the model sees rates staying elevated — a riskier ARM.

Median DSCR

1.05x

Thin margin — watch for rate rises

DSCR outcome spread

P10–P90 range of DSCR across all paths. Healthy = P10 above 1.0, median above 1.25.

P10 0.91xMed 1.05xP90 1.15x

1.0 = break-even1.25 = lender comfort zone

Model parameters: Vasicek mean-reverting model · 500 paths × 120 months. θ=3.5% (long-run mean), κ=0.3 (reversion speed), σ=1.2% (volatility), r₀=3.59% (starting rate). Preliminary estimate — not a commitment to lend. Submit a scenario review for exact underwriting.

Ready to move forward?

Get a real rate on this deal.

Submit once. Greenstreet models your file against the best-fit programs and returns a structured scenario.