Stress-test the deal over 500 futures.

P10 = worst 10% of outcomes. A deal is robust when even P10 stays above 1.0. Min shows the single worst path — outlier scenarios are real but rare. Healthy = P10 above 1.0, median above 1.25.

P10 = worst 10% of outcomes. A deal is robust when even P10 stays above 1.0. Min shows the single worst path — outlier scenarios are real but rare.

This tool runs 500 what-if interest-rate scenarios to show the range of possible outcomes. Your DSCR (debt-service coverage ratio — whether the property's rent covers the loan payment; 1.00 = break-even, higher is safer) is computed at each simulated ARM (adjustable-rate mortgage) reset.

The headline number is the probability your deal breaks — that DSCR falls below 1.0 in some future rate scenario. Below 5% is comfortable; above 20% needs attention.

The cone widens as uncertainty grows. When it sits well above θ (your long-run rate), the model sees rates staying elevated — a riskier ARM.

Each path resets on the 5/6 ARM's own schedule: SOFR on that date plus the 2.75% margin, capped 2/1/5 with a 5.125% floor, and the payment recast on the remaining balance. Shown once a year. Rent is held flat unless you enter a growth rate.

Model parameters: Vasicek mean-reverting model · 500 paths × 120 months. θ=3.2% (long-run mean), κ=0.3 (reversion speed), σ=1.2% (volatility), r₀=3.7% (starting rate). Each path resets on its own schedule; rent is held flat unless you enter a growth rate, and taxes, insurance and HOA are held flat. Each path resets on its own schedule; rent is held flat unless you enter a growth rate, and taxes, insurance and HOA are held flat.